It's a long video; Kyle Bass at AmeriCatalyst 2011, which is a series “created and driven by professionals working in the capital markets and mortgage industry for their peers”
There's a lot of great content here, and I think Kyle's analysis is excellent. You'll have to listen to the whole presentation, but here is my summary:
Europe is in big trouble; the European banking system is cracking under de-levering
Don't be complacent and think politicians / IMF will save us; they can't
Money-printing has papered over problems, but nothing has fundamentally changed
Total credit (governments + banks) has not de-levered yet, but it will at some point
Shifting bad assets from banks to government has inflated corporate earnings
Japan is in big trouble too, as is America
This is not a cyclical rebound from the crisis that we had two years ago, where you should be buying stocks because the P/E ratio is low, comparatively speaking, with the rest of the S&P years. Because the E is wrong.
We're going to see declines, and people don't know how to position themselves for declines.
Are we seeing peak earnings right now? Earnings are looking good.
Yeah, if you take all the bad assets and put them on the public balance sheet, earnings are going to look good.
[ Laughter from audience. Note that the audience consists of investment bankers and analysts. These banksters are LAUGHING AT THE PUBLIC for being stupid enough to accept all the junk dumped on them by the banks ]
So peak earnings?
Yeah. This is what just happened. We're high-fiving ourselves for TARP. If you print enough money, anyone can make TARP work. Are we going to pay ourselves back with the money we print and throw it back through the banks? We're high-fiving, but we can keep printing and make that work.
But I think going forward, we haven't solved any problems. Nothing has de-levered. Now you're starting to see marginal de-levering in Europe, and all hell's breaking loose.
- Perpetual Bull