GreatPonzi.com
BullSignals History


This page will not necessarily be kept up to date with each signal.

Most recent signal

My algorithm thinks the global market has weakened. After several months of being long stocks, this closes the long position and moves to cash.

Background

My BullSignals algorithm generates "buy" and "sell" signals for the stock index. The goal is to get out of the market during weak periods of high volatility, to minimize losses (maximum drawdown). The primary goal is risk avoidance, but not necessarily outperformance.

In the Humble Canadian Edition, the "buy" signal indicates it's time to buy XIU (stock) and the "sell" signal indicates it's time to sell XIU. At each point, you would switch into XSB (cash-like).

In the Extreme Greed Edition, the "buy" signal indicates it's time to buy XIV (inverse volatility derivative) and the "sell" signal indicates it's time to sell XIV. At each point, you would switch into SHY (cash-like) and have a stiff drink.

Performance

Here are 3 year annual returns to 2017-07-06 of BullSignals versus buying the security directly, including dividends and interest when sitting in cash. CAGR = compound annual growth rate, and Maximum drawdown is the worst loss seen, from local high to low.

Humble Canadian Edition

Strategy CAGR Max drawdown
BullSignals 5.45% -4.8%
Plain XIU 3.56% -23.5%

BullSignals has slightly outperformed the index while significantly reducing drawdown.

Extreme Greed Edition

Strategy CAGR Max drawdown
BullSignals 49.4% -40.7%
Plain XIV 18.3% -69.3%

Hopefully I'm not boring you. By avoiding volatile periods in the market, the BullSignals algorithm significantly boosted the return of XIV. Maximum drawdown was also reduced.

Warning: XIV is an ETN without assets and relies on the solvency of Credit Suisse. In case of a very large single day move, Credit Suisse has the right to dissolve the fund and force you to incur an enormous loss. If a crash similar to 1987 happens again, XIV would be dissolved and investors would lose all their money. This is a very dangerous instrument and you could lose 100% of your investment.