GreatPonzi.com
BullSignals History


This page will not necessarily be kept up to date with each signal.

Most recent signal

My algorithm thinks the global market has strengthened.

Background

My BullSignals algorithm generates "buy" and "sell" signals for the stock index. The goal is to get out of the market during weak periods of high volatility, to minimize losses (maximum drawdown). The primary goal is risk avoidance, but not necessarily outperformance.

In the Humble Canadian Edition, the "buy" signal indicates it's time to buy XIU (stock) and the "sell" signal indicates it's time to sell XIU. At each point, you would switch into XSB (cash-like).

In the Extreme Greed Edition, the "buy" signal indicates it's time to buy SVXY (inverse volatility derivative) and the "sell" signal indicates it's time to sell SVXY. At each point, you would switch into SHY (cash-like) and have a stiff drink.

Performance

Here are 3 year annual returns to 2017-09-04 of BullSignals versus buying the security directly, including dividends and interest when sitting in cash. CAGR = compound annual growth rate, and Maximum drawdown is the worst loss seen, from local high to low.

Humble Canadian Edition

Strategy CAGR Max drawdown
BullSignals 3.62% -5.9%
Plain XIU 2.63% -23.5%

BullSignals has slightly outperformed the index while significantly reducing drawdown.

Extreme Greed Edition

Strategy CAGR Max drawdown
BullSignals 44.44% -40.7%
Plain SVXY 23.49% -69.4%

By avoiding volatile periods in the market, the BullSignals algorithm significantly boosts the return of SVXY. Maximum drawdown was also reduced.

Warning: SVXY is an exotic derivative ETF with very high risk. If a crash similar to 1987 happens again, SVXY could become worthless and could be terminated. This is a very dangerous instrument and you could lose 100% of your investment. SVXY should only be held in a tax sheltered account due to complex tax treatment in a normal taxable account. Although you may experience very large short term returns, you could forfeit all of your profits in just a single day.