GreatPonzi.com
BullSignals History


This page will not necessarily be kept up to date with each signal.

Most recent signal

My algorithm thinks the global market has strengthened.

Strategy

My BullSignals algorithm generates "buy" and "sell" signals for the stock index. The goal is to get out of the market during weak periods of high volatility, to minimize losses (maximum drawdown). The primary goal is risk avoidance, but not necessarily outperformance.

Below, I calculate 3 year annual returns to 2018-12-31 using two different BullSignals strategies, including dividends and interest when sitting in cash. CAGR = compound annual growth rate, and Maximum drawdown is the worst loss seen, from local high to low.

Humble Canadian Edition

In the Humble Canadian Edition, the "buy" signal indicates it's time to buy XIU (stock) and the "sell" signal indicates it's time to sell XIU. At each point, you would switch with ZST (cash-like).

The goal of the strategy is to perform about the same as XIU, but with milder maximum drawdowns. This is a conservative investment that gives stock market exposure, hopefully with less risk. NOTE: there are no guarantees, and this is experimental.

3-Year Performance to 2018-12-31, Humble Canadian Edition

Strategy CAGR Max drawdown
BullSignals 2.1% -10.5%
Plain XIU 7.0% -14.7%

Unfortunately, the strategy is significantly underperforming XIU. Risk aversion has made the strategy miss out on gains. Drawdown has improved, however.

Moderate Greed Edition

Previously, I described an "Extreme Greed Edition", but that strategy blew up. I've now switched to a new Moderate Greed Edition which I think is more sustainable.

In the Moderate Greed Edition, the "buy" signal indicates it's time to buy SSO (a 2x leverage ETF) and the "sell" signal indicates it's time to sell SSO. At each point, you would switch with SHV (t-bills).

The goal of the strategy is to leverage and outperform SPY (the S&P 500) without catastrophic performance loss during rough markets. Normally, leverage provides outperformance until volatility wipes out or destroys the approach. NOTE: this strategy is very risky and there will be sharp drawdowns. We hope to avoid catastrophic losses and generally outperform SPY, but there are no guarantees. This is experimental.

3-Year Performance to 2018-12-31, Moderate Greed Edition

Strategy CAGR Max drawdown
BullSignals 13.0% -23.5%
Plain SPY 9.2% -19.3%

The strategy is outperforming, working as intended. Drawdown is indeed a bit worse than SPY, as expected with a leveraged strategy, but the trade-off is quite good. The goal is to get a leveraged return, without catastrophic drawdown. So far, so good!